Welcome back! So this is not Thursday…Sorry!
A brief reminder of my goals for this blog: this blog is meant for my own personal edification as much as to my audience. To be able to explain something, you need to have an understanding of the topic. So this blog helps me stay up to date with the news, practice my writing, and hopefully entertain and inform. I also plan to experiment with a few different styles, so let me know what you think! As always, feel free to check out the past recommendations and inspirations.
National Headlines – Deficit Jumps by 17%, 6 Year High
Deficit vs. Debt
Just a reminder that the deficit is the one year shortcoming in the budget (FY2018 was $779 billion) while the debt is the total year over year that the government owes (currently upwards of $21 trillion).
Why this happened?
The United States has not run a budget surplus in over 15 years, so this is not unusual. It is notable the increase and the size of the deficit. Government spending rose 3% due largely to military and entitlements. Meanwhile, the GOP tax cuts started which meant that corporations paid $76 billion less in taxes which means less revenue for the government.
Why It Matters
Heading into the midterms, strategists initially thought the GOP could ride the strong economy and tax cuts message. However, personal tax cuts won’t start showing up for most individuals until 2019. Couple this with the fact that clinging to Trump seems to be the best strategy, and GOP candidates have not really stuck to the economy message.
International News – WaPo Journalist Presumed Dead, Allegedly Murdered by Saudis
What Happened?
Here is a brief synopsis of the situation via our friends at AllSides:
“Journalist Jamal Khashoggi, a Washington Post columnist and longtime critic of the regime in Saudi Arabia, was allegedly murdered at the Saudi consulate on October 2, sparking global outrage over human rights abuses at the hands of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.”
Khashoggi, a US Resident with a green card and Saudi Arabian national, was at the consulate in Istanbul, Turkey to get marriage paperwork for himself and his Turkish fiance when this happened. He entered the consulate and never left.
After the Saudi Crown Prince denied involvement, President Trump was asked about it and said that the press was making this another ‘guilty until proven innocent’ case. However, Trump has since changed his tune slightly and said that if Saudi Arabia was found guilty there would be ‘severe consequences.’
Why It Matters
First and foremost, this is about a journalist who was (allegedly brutally) interrogated and murdered. That is an unfortunate story on its own merits. He was murdered due to his critiques of a regime which goes against “the exercise of fundamental rights, including the right to life and of expression and dissent.”
Furthermore, the Trump Administration, in contrast to the Obama Administration, has sought to make Saudi Arabia its main ally in the Middle East. Ultimately this is also a reflection of the United States and the countries we choose as allies. It is hard for the United States to wield any sort of moral authority when we ally ourselves with countries that commit murders because of what someone writes.
Writer’s Choice – 2020!
In a few short weeks, the 2018 midterms will have come and gone. Once the postmortems have been written about the midterms, the very next article will be about who is running, particularly for President, in 2020. So, let’s write that article.
The Assumed Candidates
A quick note: As you will notice, the first three candidates on the list are female and it seems inevitable, that a female nominee will emerge.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA): Basically everything Warren has done in the last year or so seems to indicate her plans are to run in 2020. This includes her recent spat with President Trump about her heritage.
Sen. Kristen Gillibrand (D-NY): One of the Democratic leaders of the #MeToo movement, Gillibrand is a shrewd politician and built her own image. She is not afraid to throw elbows and would be a good matchup against Trump.
Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA): Harris is a rising star from California in the Democratic Party. She has folks in her corner at least discussing the idea of a 2020 run.
Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ): Booker seems to have been planning to run for President (at some point) since he was elected Mayor of Newark back in 2006.
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VA): Bernie had his base ‘feeling the Bern’ in 2016, and remains a prominent Democratic figure (despite his status as an Independent). However, it feels like his moment may have passed by 2020.
Obama Contingent
Joe Biden: Vice President under Barack Obama, Biden has not ruled out a run. His biggest marks against him? He is an old, white male in a party trending younger and more diverse.
Eric Holder: Part of the Obama Administration. First ever black Attorney General from 2009-2015. Well liked, well connected, smart, and his connection to Obama would be a huge plus.
Michelle Obama: Former FLOTUS seems unlikely to run, but would likely do remarkably well due to name recognition and her own celebrity.
Sleeper Candidates
These are candidates who may or may not run, but will certainly capture media attention if they do and could surprise people by how well they do.
John Kasich: The Republican Governor of Ohio never really stopped running after the 2016 election. He was one of the last to leave the Republican primary in 2016 and could try to run as an Independent in 2020.
Michael Avenatti: Outspoken attorney to Stormy Daniels has hinted at a presidential bid. He is similar to President Trump because he is an ‘outsider’ who knows how to get media attention. Also, the world seems to have lost its mind in the last few years so who knows.
Beto O’Rouke: Imagine this….O’Rouke, who despite gaining national attention for his Senate bid in Texas, loses in a close race to Ted Cruz. However, O’Rouke turns his popularity and massive 2018 funding into a run as a progressive who can carry the South. It may not happen, O’Rourke wouldn’t run if won, and on Thursday he actually stated that it is a “definitive no.” So, if politics has taught me anything that means its about a 50/50 shot.
Recommendation of the Week – The Weeds
The Weeds is my newest podcast addiction. Produced by Vox, the Weeds doesn’t just give the headlines, it digs “into the weeds” of the issues. The hosts spend time pulling apart different policy ideas or proposals that may be in the news. They also frequently end the podcast by highlighting a “white paper” or policy brief. Two notes: the podcast uses occasional expletives and is produced by Vox which gives it a bit of liberal lean.
Inspiration of the Week – Paul VI and Oscar Romero Canonized
Pope Francis canonized Pope Paul VI and Archbishop Oscar Romero this week. The communion of saints gained two more saints! If you don’t know much about these saints click the links below to read their stories!
You can learn more about St. Oscar Romero HERE
You can learn more about St. Paul VI HERE
Peace, love, and all the above,
DJE
Thursday Thoughts 